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Wonk Week Session Recording

2024 Election Outlook: Key Races, Trends, and Impacts

Featuring

Dimitrios J. Karakitsos, Partner, Holland & Knight Todd Wooten, Partner, Holland & Knight

As the 2024 election cycle heats up, understanding the key races and emerging trends is crucial for navigating the evolving political landscape. Join Dimitrios Karakitsos and Todd Wooten for an in-depth analysis of the upcoming election. Dimitrios, a public policy attorney with extensive experience in legislative strategies and federal regulations, and Todd, an expert in public policy, energy, and emerging technologies, will provide their unique insights into the factors shaping the election. This session will cover pivotal races, policy implications, and potential impacts on various sectors, offering attendees a comprehensive outlook on what to expect in 2024 and beyond.

Watch the Session
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As the 2024 election approaches, public affairs professionals, policymakers, and political enthusiasts are keenly observing the trends and races that will shape the country’s future. During this year’s Wonk Week, experts Dimitri Karakitsos and Todd Wooten, partners at Holland & Knight, joined Quorum Co-Founder and CEO Alex Wirth to provide key insights into what’s at stake.

The session covered important Senate and House races, predictions for party control, and the broader impacts these elections could have on the public affairs industry. Here are some of the top highlights and considerations to keep in mind as we head into November.

Who Will Control the Senate?

The Senate remains one of the most hotly contested battlegrounds in this election. Karakitsos, confident in his prediction, stated: “It’s going to be very hard for Democrats to maintain control.” He pointed to races in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, where Republicans are poised to perform well, making it increasingly difficult for Democrats to maintain control.

Wooten offered a somber perspective on the challenges faced by Democratic incumbents like Jon Tester, whose reelection bid in Montana faces significant hurdles. “When you face a headwind like that… people really don’t split tickets anymore,” Wooten explained, highlighting the difficulty Tester will face in a state where Trump is leading by a significant margin.

However, even in traditional Republican strongholds like Florida and Texas, the speakers discussed whether Democratic hopes of flipping these seats were realistic. While both acknowledged the unpopularity of incumbents like Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, Karakitsos tempered expectations, calling the Democratic chances in these states “aspirational.”

The House: A Flip in Power?

When discussing the House of Representatives, the panelists noted that its fate is closely tied to the presidential election. Karakitsos emphasized, “The House probably leans to the Democratic side, in part because it’s the reverse of the Senate.” With many Republicans defending seats in blue states, a strong Democratic turnout in places like New York and California could potentially tip control back to the Democrats.

Wooten supported this view but warned that the margin of victory, if any, would be slim. “You’re not looking at a 15-seat majority. This is going to be a really tight, narrow margin,” he said.

Key Issues Impacting the Election

One major issue that is likely to influence voter turnout and sway key races is abortion. With ballot measures related to abortion rights appearing in several states, Wooten pointed out that this issue continues to mobilize voters. “Every time we’ve seen [abortion] voted upon, the results have been fairly surprising,” he said, acknowledging its potential to drive turnout, particularly in states like Ohio and Arizona.

Karakitsos added that while the Republican stance has coalesced around leaving abortion decisions to the states, Democrats are working to keep the issue front and center, hoping it will help them in swing races.

What to Watch For

As we near Election Day, public affairs professionals should be mindful of a few key factors:

  1. Presidential Coattails: The speakers repeatedly emphasized how closely tied Senate and House races are to the presidential outcome. If Trump or Harris (in the event of a Biden step-down) win a state by a large margin, it’s unlikely that voters will split their tickets for Senate or House races.
  2. Battleground Senate Races: Keep an eye on states like Montana, Ohio, and Arizona. These will be pivotal in determining which party controls the Senate, with implications for legislative priorities in 2025.
  3. Abortion as a Turnout Driver: As seen in previous election cycles, ballot initiatives on abortion could drive significant turnout in key states. This could have a ripple effect on down-ballot races.
  4. Divided Government Challenges: If the government remains divided between parties, advocacy strategies will need to be more targeted. “The more stakeholders and engagement you have from different folks, the more you can help bridge gaps and get Congress together to do some things,” advised Karakitsos.

With the 2024 elections rapidly approaching, the insights from Wonk Week’s expert panel shed light on the challenges and opportunities ahead. Public affairs professionals should pay close attention to the trends discussed, prepare for various election outcomes, and adjust their advocacy strategies accordingly. Whether it’s working within a divided government or navigating key Senate and House races, the stakes have never been higher for shaping the future of American policy.

As always, Quorum’s suite of public affairs tools can help professionals stay informed and ready to respond to the rapidly changing political landscape​​.